Labour Party (EMEP): Three dilemmas of Turkey in Syria problem

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It is being alleged that CIA and MOSSAD agents swarmed in tent camps that house Syrian refugees, There are also news that the camps where Syrian soldiers and police -who reportedly go to Syria for protests and come back- are staying a “beaten track” for the CIA and MOSSAD. On the other hand, it is known that these various groups referred as the “Syrian opposition” negotiate publicly with Turkish officials “out of the blue”, especially with Davutoğlu. It is also said that these refugees in tent camps don’t stop fighting with each other about ethnic and sectarian issues. It is obviously visible that they are bothered by Turkish management style in the camps.

Even though the Syrian regime is weakening; Turkey faced with an adverse situation rather than getting closer to its targets.

In short, “Turkey’s Syrian problem” is getting bigger. Though, this is not a result of Assad regime’s gaining strength but Turkey’s contribution to drag Syria into terror, weakening Assad’s authority. This is because the weakened regime has withdrawn its soldiers from some regions. For instance, the Assad regime seems to have abandoned 3-4 km cordon surrounding the Syrian-Turkey border to the “opponents” temporarily. Yet, this abandonment also unveiled the characteristics of the so-called opposition groups. Consequently it is now understood that these unclarified opposition groups are another pro-sharia groups in the same line with Al Qaeda or the Taleban. This means, Turkey is sharing borders with Al Qaeda. Their first accomplishment was plundering and burning Turkish tracks!

This is not the only problem. A balkanised Syria is a scenario being discussed. Besides, there are numerous comments indicating that, Western imperialists and Israel would not suffer but be pleased to see a divided Syria. Of course, these comments are not very objective. As a matter of fact, handing administration of six cities in north Syria to the Kurds, and Assad’s withdrawal to the West Syria, Damascus-Latakia cordon indicates this scenario could become a reality in the long term if not in short term.

However, it is pretty obvious that this is a nightmare scenario for Turkey. A divided Syria would drag important border towns of Turkey into a chaotic position, cities such as Hatay, Adana and Mersin, with nearly 2 million Nusayri Arab minorities. Thus, the most crucial condition for AKP government would be the emergence of Kurdistan in northern Syria.

Of course, the right of the Syrian Kurds to self-determination shouldn’t be a business of the Turkish government. However, AKP government have come to a pretty pass with Syria because of its known habit of “importing regime” to the neighbouring countries. It won’t be a surprise if AKP would have serious conflicts with Syrian Kurds because of its interference to the Kurdish government and we already see the signs of this. Shortly, today Turkey is confronting with three impasses: pro-sharia Al Qeada and Taleban in its borders, Arab-Nusayri reactions on Hatay-Mersin line, and finally, possible self-determination orientation of Syrian Kurds. This is the final situation of Turkish foreign policy that was conducted by Erdoğan –Davutoğlu, and finding a way out of this labyrinth won’t be so easy. Above all, given that Russian insistence on the region’s politics will maintain even after a possible overthrow of the Syrian regime, Turkish foreign policy has become completely open to any kind of crisis and provocation.

As emerging three grand issues have been indicating themselves even before a Syrian disintegration, Turkey’s unrealistic foreign policy will be more obvious along with the potential foreign interference in the region.

Source

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