What do we know about the outcome of the consultation on 7 May? In essence, that Correa has lost the support of most Ecuadorians. When the consultation was convened it had 65% of popular support, he it has no more than 45%. From another side, this process shows that the popular rejection of the government has increased.
The intent of the President and the PAIS Alliance to assert their political project did not crystallize, and has barely been able to get — until now — a small electoral victory, very, very far from the landslide victory with which they threatened. One can hear the concern and confusion rife in its ranks and the mutual claims of responsibility for results and envisions a deepening of the internal struggles, some of which will lead to purges of its ranks. Opportunism leads to that.
The referendum has been the scene of intense confrontation between the government and its demagogic populist project, supported by sections of the bourgeoisie on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the popular movement and the revolutionary left raising a proposal for a popular NO. This camp also had a right sector appear from reactionary positions, but differences in policy positions were clearly established between the forces of NO. Those who played a role in this revolutionary sector and played a key role in the campaign raised the NO from progressive and leftist positions, as part of a project to promote genuine political and social change.
Correa’s election flow has fallen considerably, but is still significant. It includes popular impoverished sectors in the country that believe that there is a process of change and are caught in the ideological proposal of the so-called “citizens’ revolution” and sectors felt appreciation for the work of government material. The left needs to develop an intense work towards them to the disappointment of the personality and actions of Rafael Correa, and show the path which means a social revolution.
Without doubt, the May 7 election opened a new stage in political life, therefore, there is a change in the correlation of forces that has generated better conditions for the task of the popular movement. The image of an invincible Correa has fallen on the floor.