The talks on Iranian Nuclear programme, between Iran and the P5 +1 (US, Russia, England, France, China and Germany) concluded on 2 April with a ‘framework agreement’. Sides have also agreed on the final agreement to be signed on 30 July 2015.
According to the agreement; Iran will reduce the number of centrifuges used in enriching uranium by two thirds and limit the enrichment levels to 3.7%. Iran will also shut down one of its two nuclear facilities and years allow the scrutiny of its nuclear programme by the West for the next 25!
In return the EU sanctions will be lifted immediately and the US sanctions gradually.
The agreement was met with ‘jubilation’ in Iran, ‘rage’ in Israel and with ‘anxiety’ in the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia. Representatives of the P5 +1 countries were positive in calling the agreement a “historic step” and a “key step”.
Doubtlessly, the diplomatic-political situation created by the ‘framework agreement’ indicates to a course that will lead to important developments in both internal (economical and diplomatic) and external politics of Iran and the 36 year Iranian and Middle Eastern policies of Western imperialists.
The ‘reformist government’ of Ruhani – receiving their mandate with electoral victory over Ahmedinejad – will move to open a new page in their relationship with the West, as well as trying to change the economic conditions that affect the population deeply. Hence, to say that steps to liberalise the economy will be taken along with neoliberal political decisions, akin to the kind of economical programme after the crisis in 2002 in Turkey, would not be wrong. This tendency will surely strengthen the Ruhani government, liberalise the squeezed Iranian economy, and with the lifting of sanctions and external support, introduce some policies that make the lives of Iranians easier. In short, the steps that follow the agreement will lead to a ‘benefit for both sides’ by causing an ‘awakening’ in the Iranian market and opening it up to Western profit. Of course by ‘benefit’ we mean the benefit of the Iranian ruling classes and imperialist capital. It may look likely to bring some relief to the Iranian public celebrating in the streets but with this agreement imperialist exploitation will become stronger and wider spread and the rule of the mullahs will be prolonged; providing the basis for their continued rule. Since 2 April lots of discussions have taken place regarding the ‘framework agreement’; the questions on “Who won what?”, “Who lost what?”, “What will happen now?”, “Could Iran be trusted?”.. .etc are argued from different perspectives. It seems that these arguments will continue up to and even beyond 30 June. Because the tangible discussion is about the ‘nuclear capabilities of Iran’ and western inspections of it but in reality the discussion is much more extensive.
Hence this discussion cannot be comprehensively understood unless the close link between the following is understood clearly;
1. Activities of IS, Al-Qaeda and Islamist terror organisations in Iraq and Syria, civil wars that have now spread also to Yemen, the infighting in the Middle East including the military offensive against Yemen led by Saudi Arabia with the active support of Egypt,
2. Iran’s position within these developments, its increasing influence within the ‘Shiite Crescent’ that extends from Iran to the southernmost tip of the Arab Peninsula, its close relationship with Russia and China to extent that it might interfere with Western plans in the region,
3. The ever burdensome outcomes of western interventions in the region and the redrawing of regional borders; and determining areas of activity for imperialists and the reactionary forces in the region.
Regional diplomatic-political and military dimensions of the problems raised by the agreement, as well as the now obvious ‘futility’ within these developments of the ‘lone’ Turkish foreign policy will be discussed below. ‘Futile loneliness’ has hit also the Iranian wall!
It is clear that, following the ‘framework agreement’, the Iranian government can breathe easy in terms of its regional and internal policies and implementing its economic policies. Saying that, countries ‘on the other side of the agreement’, especially USA, England, France and Germany have gained a great advantage in their plans that include a redrawing of the borders in the region. This advantage is the normalisation of their relationship with Iran! This will make it easier to intervene in the region, as they can now directly communicate with Iran, and create the opportunity to put Iran forward against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey; all rivals of Iran in the fight for ‘regional power’.
Considering Iran’s influence among regional Shiites, and that it is a side in the conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, this development will severely limit any initiative that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have against western imperialists.
In considering statements past and current, while speaking about the regionally historic step taken by Iran – the biggest and oldest rival of Turkey and its biggest neighbour in the region – and the attempts to change borders in the region, we have not spoken about Turkey at all. There was no need to! This means that Turkey is not going to be as important for the West in reorganising and redrawing borders in the region. Of course, if the new Ottoman foreign policy is insisted upon; if as “big brother” and “defended intervention in internal affairs of regional countries are continued; if games with the use of Islamic terrorist gangs in the region is continued; if the role of diplomacy is reduced to the covert operations of MIT!
These are the conditions under which President Erdogan went for a one-day ‘working visit’ to Iran, celebrating the ‘framework agreement’.
On his way to Iran, Erdogan failed to make the traditional President’s statement at the airport! On this visit where energy and economics will be discussed, it is stated that Turkey’s attitude on Yemen will be delivered to Iran directly by the president.
It is also known that Turkey’s attitude on Yemen is not particularly welcome in Iran. Indeed, Turkey’s support for Saudi Arabia in attacking Yemen, and the inflammatory statements on Iran’s policies on Iraq, Syria and Yemen that ‘overstep diplomatic language of courtesy’ had caused a reaction in Iran. As such, 65 Iranian MPs had called on President Ruhani to defer or cancel the visit of Erdogan.
We will have to wait and see what Erdogan’s visit will achieve at a time where Iran is gaining the moral higher ground and the relations between the two countries are worsening. We can confidently say that the developments will not favour Turkey.
If we look at the aggregate affect of the ‘framework agreement’; Yes, Iran has been greatly successful, also in making the West accept its position in the region. This in turn means a loss for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and especially Turkey in their bid for leadership in the region. Israel is also on the side of the losers this time. But a ‘framework agreement’ does not indicate the end of a 36 year struggle against the West and a new rosy relationship. The Iranian- West relations will not reach a ‘normal’ level in the short term. Pieces will start falling into place at least after the ‘final agreement’ on 30 June.
In terms of Turkey’s new Ottoman foreign policy – and attempts to defend it by glorifying it as a ‘Dignified loneliness’ – it will not be long before we see that it has no worth even within the new Middle Eastern market that will be created.
7-8 April 2015